Ever wondered if there’s a smart way to bet on sports? Good news: there is! It’s called expected value, or EV for short. It helps you figure out if a bet is worth making over the long run.
Let’s break it down in the simplest way possible. You’ll feel like a math ninja by the end of this!
So, what exactly is expected value?
Expected value tells you how much you can expect to win or lose on average with every bet you make. It’s not about what will happen — it’s about what’s likely to happen over time.
Think of it as a long-term guide. One bet might lose, yes. But if your EV is positive, and you keep making the same kind of smart bet, you’re winning in the end!
Here’s the formula (don’t worry, it’s easy!)
Expected Value (EV) = (Amount you can win × Probability of winning) – (Amount you can lose × Probability of losing)
Let’s walk through it with an example.
Example time!
Say there’s a basketball game. You’re betting $100 on Team A.
- The odds for Team A to win: +150
- That means if they win, you get $150 profit (plus your $100 back)
- Let’s say you think Team A has a 50% chance of winning
Let’s plug in the numbers:
EV = ($150 × 0.5) – ($100 × 0.5)
EV = $75 – $50
EV = +$25
Boom! That’s a positive EV bet. Over time, with similar bets, you’d expect to make $25 on average per bet.
Wait, what if the EV is negative?
Then, your pockets might slowly get lighter! Negative EV means you’re expected to lose money in the long run. Let’s try one of those:
- You’re betting $100 to win $80 (odds: -125)
- Chance of winning: 50%
EV = ($80 × 0.5) – ($100 × 0.5)
EV = $40 – $50
EV = -$10
So, with this one, you’d be losing $10 on average. Not fun, right?
How do I know the probability though?
This one’s tricky. The sportsbook odds tell you what they think. But successful bettors calculate their own probabilities — called implied probability.
Here’s how to convert American odds into implied probability:
- Positive odds (e.g., +150): 100 / (odds + 100)
- Negative odds (e.g., -125): odds / (odds + 100), remove the minus sign first
So for +150 odds:
100 / (150 + 100) = 100 / 250 = 0.4 or 40%
This means the book is telling you they believe your team has a 40% chance to win. If you think it’s more, say 50%, that’s how you find value!
Quick tips to use EV like a pro
- Don’t go with your gut — use data!
- Shop for odds — different books have different odds
- Track your bets — over time you’ll see which bets work
- Look for positive EV — always aim for the long game
Final whistle
Expected value is your best friend in sports betting. It won’t make every bet a winner. But it will help you make smarter choices. Smarter bets = more wins over time.
Now grab your calculator (or use one online), think like a math wizard, and start finding those value bets!
Good luck out there. May your EVs always be positive!