Yes, people really do ask this. When a pope dies or resigns, the world watches Rome. News channels discuss cardinals. Catholics pray. And somewhere, a bookmaker updates odds on who may become the next pope. It sounds odd. It is also a real betting niche in some places.
TLDR: You may be able to bet on the next pope, but only where legal betting sites offer “novelty” or political style markets. For example, a bookmaker might list Cardinal A at 4/1 and Cardinal B at 8/1, meaning a $10 bet could return $50 or $90 total if your pick wins. In many places, especially parts of the United States, regulated sportsbooks do not offer papal election bets. Always check local law, site rules, and tax duties first.
So, can you bet on the pope?
Sometimes, yes. But not everywhere. Papal election betting is usually treated as a novelty market. It is not like betting on football, tennis, or horse racing. There are no teams. There is no scoreboard. There is smoke from a chimney.
Some bookmakers in the United Kingdom and parts of Europe have offered odds on the next pope. Online betting exchanges may also create markets, if allowed by local rules. These markets often appear when a conclave is expected. That happens after a pope dies or resigns.
But the Vatican does not run these bets. The Catholic Church does not approve odds. The Holy See is not paying out your winnings. A betting company creates the market, sets the rules, and settles the result.
How does a papal election work?
The pope is chosen in a meeting called a conclave. The voters are cardinals, usually those under age 80. They gather in the Sistine Chapel. They vote in secret. A candidate normally needs a two thirds majority to win.
After each set of votes, the ballots are burned. If no one wins, the smoke is black. If a pope is elected, the smoke is white. Then the famous words come: Habemus Papam. That means, “We have a pope.”
This process makes betting tricky. There are no public polls. There are no campaign ads. Cardinals do not give victory speeches before the vote. So odds are based on news, history, church politics, age, geography, and rumors. That makes it fascinating. It also makes it risky.
What kinds of papal bets exist?
Markets can vary by bookmaker. Common examples include:
- Next pope: Pick the cardinal or person who becomes pope.
- Nationality of the next pope: Italian, Filipino, Ghanaian, American, and so on.
- Continent: Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, or South America.
- Papal name: Will he choose John, Benedict, Francis, Pius, or another name?
- Length of conclave: Will the election take one day, two days, or longer?
- Age bracket: Will the new pope be under 65, 65 to 75, or over 75?
Some of these are more serious than others. Betting on a papal name can feel like bingo with incense. But it is part of the fun for some bettors.
Can anyone become pope?
In theory, any baptized Catholic man can be elected pope. In practice, the winner is almost always a cardinal. The modern Church chooses from senior leaders who already know the Vatican, global Catholic issues, and church diplomacy.
That matters for betting. A bookmaker may list dozens of cardinals. Most will have long odds. A few will be favorites. These favorites are often called papabili. That means “popeable.” Yes, that is a real informal term. And yes, it sounds like a pasta shape.
How do the odds work?
Odds show what the bookmaker thinks may happen. They also reflect where money is going. If many people bet on one cardinal, his odds may shorten.
Here is a simple example:
- Cardinal Rossi at 3/1: Bet $10 and win $30 profit, plus your $10 stake back.
- Cardinal Mensah at 7/1: Bet $10 and win $70 profit, plus your stake.
- Cardinal Santos at 12/1: Bet $10 and win $120 profit, plus your stake.
Lower odds mean a higher expected chance. Higher odds mean a lower expected chance. But in a conclave, surprises happen. A candidate can look strong on Monday and be forgotten by Wednesday.
Market rules matter a lot
You must read the rules before placing a bet. This is important. Papal markets are not standard sports markets.
Check these points:
- Settlement source: Does the site use the Vatican announcement as the official result?
- Name changes: Is the winner settled by birth name, cardinal name, or papal name?
- Dead heat rules: Usually not relevant, but check anyway.
- Voided bets: What happens if a listed person dies before the conclave?
- Timing: Does the market close when the conclave begins or when white smoke appears?
- Maximum stakes: Novelty markets often have low betting limits.
A small rule can change everything. For example, if you bet on “next pope nationality,” how does the site define nationality? Birthplace? Passport? Current citizenship? The answer should be in the market terms.
Is papal election betting legal?
It depends on where you live. This is the big answer. Betting laws are local. They can change by country, state, province, or territory.
In the United Kingdom, novelty betting markets are more common. Licensed bookmakers may offer this type of market. In many parts of Europe, rules vary. Some countries allow broad betting markets. Others restrict them.
In the United States, regulated sportsbooks often focus on sports. Many states do not allow betting on political, religious, or entertainment events through normal sports betting apps. Some prediction markets may offer event contracts, but these can face strict regulatory attention. The rules are complex.
In other countries, online gambling may be banned, restricted, or allowed only through local licensed operators. Using an offshore site may break local law. It may also leave you with little protection if the site refuses to pay.
This article is for general information. It is not legal advice. If real money is involved, check your local gambling regulator or a qualified lawyer.
What about taxes?
Winning money may create tax duties. In some places, gambling winnings are taxable. In others, casual gambling wins may not be taxed. Professional gambling may be treated differently.
Keep records. Save your bet slips. Note the date, stake, odds, and payout. A $20 fun bet is simple. A large win is not. Tax offices enjoy paperwork more than you enjoy surprise bills.
Could insider information be a problem?
This is an interesting question. The conclave is secret. Cardinals take oaths. They should not leak votes. But rumors can spread in Rome. They often do.
Betting operators may suspend markets if strange activity appears. They may also limit customers or void bets if rules were broken. If someone used confidential information, that could create legal or contractual problems. It could also be deeply unethical.
In short: do not try to be a Vatican spy. It is a bad look. Also, the robes are hard to pull off.
Is it ethical to bet on the pope?
Some people think it is harmless fun. Others think it is disrespectful. Both views exist.
A papal election is sacred for Catholics. It is not just a public event. It is a spiritual moment for a global church. Betting on it may feel rude to some believers.
If you do bet, be respectful. Avoid jokes about death, illness, or faith. Do not harass religious figures online. Do not treat the conclave like a reality show finale. A little humor is fine. Cruelty is not.
Tips for curious bettors
- Use licensed sites only. Safety matters more than odds.
- Read the market rules. Do this before betting.
- Set a tiny budget. Treat it as entertainment.
- Do not chase rumors. Vatican gossip is foggy.
- Check legality first. Your location controls your options.
- Remember the limits. Novelty markets can close fast.
The bottom line
You can bet on the pope in some legal betting markets. But access depends on your country and the operator. These markets are unusual, low limit, and full of mystery. That is part of their charm.
Still, keep it simple. Know the law. Read the rules. Bet only what you can lose. And when the white smoke rises, remember this is more than a market result. For millions of people, it is history, faith, and a new chapter in the Church.